Coping with energy crisis in Pakistan

A PROFILE of Pakistan primary energy resources shows Pakistan is highly depending on conventional sources of energy. Its share in energy supply mix is highly dependent on oil, liquid petroleum and natural gas. The primary commercial energy supplies during 2007-2008 were 62.9 million tones of oil equivalent (mtoe). The share of natural gas in primary energy supplies during 2007-2008 was 47.5% followed by oil 30.5%, hydro electricity 10.9%, coal 9.2%, nuclear electricity 12%, LPG 0.7%, and imported electricity 0.1%.

It is of high concerning that NEPRA has increased power tariff by 94.9 percent for domestic, 67.6 percent for commercial and 77 percent for industrial consumers during the period of Mar, 2008 to August, 2010. Major reasons for hiking this tariff was indicated as dependence on thermal plants and increase in administrative expenses. At present, Pakistan get 30 percent generation from hydel and 70 percent from thermal while in 1974 this ratio was reversed.

The traditional energy sources are no longer abundant as they are rapidly being depleted due to increase in population and pace of development. Pakistan is very fortunate in the sense that renewable sources of energy can meet its entire energy requirement, though its ratio with non renewable energy (NRE) is desired on technical ground. It is imperative to find search and research on renewable energy (RE) sources so that NRE is replaced with RE and the present tempo of development may not only maintained but also improved with passage of time.

Our country is being worst affecting by terrorism and corruption. The Great Earthquake and Flood-2010 has negatively affected our growth rate and a number of energy plants were, partially or completely damaged. Micro Hydropower plants, installed with collaboration of PCRET are the examples of it. However, we are not pessimistic and if our economy grows at the rate of 7-8% annually, the power (electricity) demand will be 36,000 MW in 2015 and 114,000 MW in 2030. The country has the potential to cope with the present power deficiency and can meet the planned demand subject to focus on bringing normal law and order situation, strengthen present energy departments and increase in investment.

Government is aware of energy issue. Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Technologies (PCRET) and Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) have been set up for this purpose. PCRET is, mostly working on small scale household renewable schemes and AEDB effort to increase national grid network capacity through bigger plants. Both the organizations are creating awareness and encouraging renewable energy technologies, facilitating and providing technical guideline for setting up plants and explore and identify other energy sources for dissemination.

She is creating awareness and encourages renewable energy technologies, facilitating and providing technical guideline for setting up plants and explores and identify other energy sources for dissemination. A team under the supervision of Dr. Samar Mubarik Mand is working on gasification of coal for power producing in the area to save environment degradation and construction of 100 MW thermal plant.

Pakistan joined $ 7.6 billion Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and India gas pipe line project to help it meet its sharply rising domestic energy demand. This inter governmental agreement was signed on Dec 11, 2010 after 15 years of the project envisioned. The 1,680 Km gas pipeline, backed by the Asian Development Bank will bring 3.2 billion cubic feet day natural gas from Turkmenistan’s gas field to Multan and Fazilka in India. Under the pipeline agreement, Pakistan and India, each will share 42 percent quota while the balance 16 percent will get by Afghanistan. This gas pipeline deal will end entire gas crisis in Pakistan in 2014.

Eleven MoUs have been signed by the Punjab Board of Investment and Trade with various UAE firms for the development of solar and coal energy sectors. Asian Development Bank will provide $ 36.4 million for installation of wind mills in district Thatta of Sindh.

The Pak-US energy sector working group, according to a news paper, discussed a five year generation enhancement plan whereby 10,000 MW power will be added to the national grid network. A known multi-national electronic firm is importing solar panels to making their contribution to the GoP efforts to overcome energy short fall. A number of private parties, particularly, multi-national assured Government to help the country out of energy crisis. The UNO, like Productive Use of Renewable Energy (PURE) plan to install mini and micro hydropower plants in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan in near future.

Pakistan has abundance resources in RE & NRE resources but the question is the proper tapping and management of these resources to provide cheap and sustainable energy to household, agricultural, industrial, and commercial sectors to meet the present and future demand of development. In this article, the writer presents a few suggestions for coping with energy crisis in Pakistan with special reference to RE resources.

Hydroelectricity

Hydroelectric power plants, built on dams and run of river systems meet one-fifth of world power demand in the world. Generation of power through this source can increase substantially in order to increase supply for meeting energy demand in future. This source of energy, at present, has more potential to replace a tangible part of fossil fuels than the other technologies, as it has already in practice world over. Example of this aspect can be given from one of AKRSP report that Pakistan exist roughly 80,000 MW power potential over streams, canals and rivers in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtonkhawa but a very small part of it was tapped.

The Indus from K-2, Gilgit-Baltistan to Karach has unique attributes of 200,000 cusec flow, 13,000 feet water potential and 27 feasible sites for construction of mega multi-purpose dams. The Kabul, the Neelum, the Kunhar, the Swat, the Panjkora, the Jhelum etc potential have also surprising potential. Pakistan has 160,000 KM canal network where a number of sites from watts to MW potential exist across the country.

The major constraints in construction with small, medium and large sizes plants are those of financial hardship and lack of technical know-how. However, appropriate steps are being taken to cope with these hardships. Two turbines are being installed at Tarbela dam and all the generators will be repaired which will enhance power generation by 80 MW. Five hydel schemes of KPK and Punjab will increase 452 MW power during the current calendar year.

Works on more than half dozen hydropower projects are in progress. Three projects, i.e., Diamer-Basha, Neelum Jhelum and Golen Gol (Chitral) have the combined capacity of 6,535 MW. Three projects of 4,800 MW are ready for initial construction works and five mega projects of 13,200 MW are in detail phasing of engineering design apart from a number of projects feasibility studies of whom are being conducted.

Initial works on the Bunji, Gilgit-Baltistan and Dasu, district Kohistan are in progress. These sites have the potential to generate 7,000 MW and 4,300 MW. Government has planned to generate 20,000 MW in the next five years.

The Government has taken certain measures for conservation. Fifty percent reduction in power consumption at official residences, switching off billboards and street lights at power demand peak hours are being implemented. Government provided Rs.116 billion to retire circular debt of IPPS and the three power generation company’s which were up graded earlier, will increase 400 MW power to the country power network.

The Water and Power Development Authority is insisting on judicial use of electricity which was accepted by the industrial sector and would help in saving 100 MW power. Pakistan has 1.10 million tube wells, consuming 3,000 MW power from national grid. Agriculture sector has been offered 25 percent tariff discount if they operate between 10 pm and 6 am which would result in saving 50 MW of electricity only in Lahore jurisdiction. 1,100 tube wells are being upgraded country over. The WAPDA has increased its capacity by adding 3,000 MW of IPPs and utilizing idle production of the Authority’s thermal stations.

Pakistan will get the dividends of US $ 1.5 billion per annum in shape of cheap hydropower. Till the repayment of loan, according to Shakil Ahmad Durrani, Chairman WAPDA, “the hydro generation cost will be hovering between 6-7 cents per unit and after retirement of the entire loans, the cost will drastically tumble to just 2 cents per unit”.

Solar Energy

Sun is the biggest source of light and heat energy. For Example, clear sky radiation is 2500-3000 hours/annum and average solar radiation is 5 KWH/m2/day. It is reported that if land based solar collectors are used for collecting direct solar energy, it would be around 4,500 times more than the current needs of man. A fractional part of this energy is converted through solar collectors. In practice it is not possible to harness all the solar energy falling on earth, but it shows the importance of appropriate technology.

There are two systems of solar energy utilization i.e. the thermal and the photovoltaic cells. The thermal system is simple and comparatively easy to operate and maintain. Mankind is aware of this system ever since the very beginning of his life on Earth. Here we discuss solar cells in which photovoltaic or photoelectric cells are used to convert sun light directly into electricity. The importance of solar energy is increasing with the passage of time. “A clear example can be seen in Kenya, where it is estimated that roughly 30,000 small solar power units with a capacity of 20 to 100 watts are sold every year” [International Energy Agency ].

The harnessed solar energy is used in various sectors such as running of TVs and lighting purposes etc. Nowadays the space engineers are planning to build huge power stations in space, using photovoltaic panels to convert its output into microwaves, to be beamed down to receivers on Earth. The microwaves would then be converted into electricity. Solar cells are costly but its prices are decreasing with the passage of time.

If households are energized through silicon solar cells, it will save Rs. 1,000/ family/month. However, photovoltaic (PV) and solar thermal has negligible use and application due to absence of significant market of roof-top PV or household and commercial thermal system. It is estimated that Pakistan can produce 3,000,000 MW power from solar system.

Biomass

Biomass is mass of living material and releasing energy, called bio power. Bio fuels come either from plants such as fuel wood, twigs, grasses and wastes. According to an estimate, with the energy of these plants trapped energy, we can meet our energy requirements for several times but we uses only one-tenth of it. Bio power can be regenerated i.e., is renewable but trees depletion in Pakistan are very high than the sustainable cultivation.

Urban Pakistan produces 55,000 tones of solid waste/day. A plant of producing energy from this source is expected to be commissioned in Rawalpindi in near future. Its success will open new era for producing energy from solid waste.

BIOGAS TECHNOLOGY

Biogas technology can apply for producing methane gas as a fuel purpose and enrich manure for agriculture farms to increase crops produces. Small biogas plants feed by cow dung, agriculture wastes and water needs installation in those households where cattle exist to feed these to meet some of households fuel demands.

As per livestock census 2000, there are 46.69 million of animals (buffaloes, cows, bullocks) in the country. On the average, the daily dung dropping of medium size animal is estimated at 10 Kg/per day. This would yield a total of 466.9 million Kg dung per day. Assuming, 50% collectability, the availability of fresh dung comes to be 233.45 million Kg/per day. Thus 11.67 million M¬3 biogas per day can be produced through bio-methanation. Since 0.4 M3 gas could suffice the cooking needs of person per day, therefore, 11.67 million M3 of biogas could meet the cooking needs of 29.2 million people. Besides producing gas, it will produce 33.62 million Kg of bio-fertilizer per day or 12.3 million tons per year, which is an essential requirement for sustaining the fertility of agricultural lands.

Wind Energy

Wind turbines may have some, undesired effects. It is unattractive and noisy but wind turbine could produce power from watts to Megawatts. In the coastal areas, where wind velocity consists for most of the time, wind mills can serve energy requirements of households, water for drinking and irrigation, commercial and industrial purposes. The scientists, in this connection, are working at all dimensions, as installing small weights wind mills at roofs of houses for meeting households lighting and small apparatus requirements. A small number of wind mills of micro, small and large sizes have been installed in different parts world over to suck water for drinking and irrigation purposes and lighting households. It is reminded that China has used wind energy for power pumping.

Wind mills have some negative effects. When there is no wind, power will be not available. It also generate power, mostly near the coastal area, tall tower destroy beauty of the land. Wind mills affect television and radar reception, kill birds and cannot be predicted. Pakistan has the potential of producing 350,000 MW wind power from 1100 Km coastal area in Sindh and Balochistan. Alternate Energy Development Board (AEDB) and Pakistan Council of Renewable Energy Council (PCRET) are the focal points of Government of Pakistan for big and small sizes wind mills respectively. Both the Organizations are busy in performing their functions to avail of this source of energy for coping with energy crisis and electrify far flung areas.

Tidal/Wave Current

Tidal power can be generated with waves and current on the surface of the sea through tidal barrage, a dam like structure built across an estuary. Developed world, at small level, is using this technology of energy for human services, particularly in coastal towns for desalination plants, household and commercial uses. It is reminded that in coastal areas, potable water is a great problem. The technology is costly and complicated. At current, the technology is beyond the capacity of developing countries, needing finances besides technical assistance from donors.

Pakistan, roughly estimated has very small potential in tidal/wave energy. AEDB has collected basic information, almost all renewable technologies which can help our researchers and planners for awareness and planning of a Project such as tidal and geothermal.

Geothermal power

Geothermal is a source of energy cannot consider by the developing countries on the reasons same of tidal energy, i.e., finances and technical assistance. However, it is applied in a few developed countries like USA and New Zealand at very small level. Geothermal stations can be installed at those hot-rocks which are developed under the ground where there are no natural geysers by creating artificial geysers for operating power stations. Roughly, Pakistan has 80,000 MW geothermal energy potential (Himalayan Mountains). This sources of producing energy, is not considered appropriate for Pakistan due to cost-benefit ratio. Moreover, we have other cheap sources of energy which can do this job cheap and efficient.

Ethanol Technology

Juice can be extracted from sugarcane and sugar beet after crushing. After fermentation, it makes an alcohol-based fuel, called gasohol. Similarly, bio diesel, a juice of rapeseed is much clear than gasoline and diesel and environment friendly. However, energy produced from crops by converting ethanol is not justified and cannot imagine in Asian and African countries because of food scarcity.

Sugar mills in the country use baggase for co-generation purpose and have recently been allowed to sell surplus power to the grid.

One ton of household waste can produce 2 MW power and 83 litres ethanole. Pakistan is producing about 55,000 tons/day waste. If 50% collectability is made and used in power houses, it would produce 50,000 MW power and 23 million litres ethanol. At current, there are 90 sugar mills in the country which can play their role in over coming energy crisis.

Nuclear Power

Pakistan is currently producing 350 MW of electricity through nuclear plants while another 300 MW would be added with Chinese assistance in near future. The Atomic Energy Commission of Pakistan has planned to produce 8,000 MW power through atomic power stations by 2020. Pakistan has more than 30 years of experience of handling nuclear reactors. Its indigenous capability is marked by high safety standard and quality excellence. Pakistanis scientists and experts can handle civil nuclear technology for power generation. One of the assumptions is to approach USA to set a series of nuclear plant. Friendly Governments of Pakistan, like China assisting Pakistan in setting up nuclear stations.

Pakistan has abundance uranium deposits, can be refined with centrifuge refining method at a reasonable cost. It was estimated that Pakistan can produce 50,000 MW power from nuclear reactors.

Renewable energy is the most desirable form of energy for Pakistan. It is clean i.e., environment friendly and cheap. Per unit cost delivering of hydropower is about eight times cheaper than the thermal power plants. However, it has small disadvantages as compared to its advantage. Initial investment is high in some of the sources of R.E. Entrepreneurs reluctant to invest if hydropower plants on the ground that initial investment is high apart from taking long time in execution.

NON-RENEWABLE ENERGY

Thermal power plant apart from producing high cost power has great environmental effects. However, we have resources in coal which could be utilized for power production for the future. Using oil or gas, in the opinion of writer of this article, is not appropriate for production of thermal power.

The Thar coal is considered one of the best viable options to generate gas and power for over coming the energy crisis. The total worth of this deposit is estimated 185 billion tones of around $ 2,500 billion. It is one of the largest deposit, discovered in 1992. According to Shehzada Irfan Ahmad, the estimated energy content of Pakistan’s coal reserve is equivalent to 2,000 trillion cubic feet of gas which is about 28 times higher than Pakistan proven gas reserves, have the potential to provide 200,000 MW power for the next 100 years and save more than $ 4 billion per year in Pakistan oil import bill. Pakistan has extracted only 1.6 million tons coal in 2009.

Oil consumption was 414,000 barrels in 2009. Oil prices are predicted to be US $ 3 higher at 86 per barrel in 2011 than 2010 due to higher demand by thirsty developing countries. Pakistan has to meet, her large part in imported oil in present and future.

The demand for gas has been increased at an average of 10 percent per annum during the period of 2000-2008. The country demand for the past year was 4,731 mmcfd whereas the domestic production was 4,528 mmcfd. Proven gas reserves were 0.91 trillion square meters by the end of 2009. According to the well known sources, these reserves will be finished up during 26 years, if the consumption is going in the same line.

The End

Dr. Habib Gul, Deputy Director General, Bukhari Street, Col: Aman Ullah Road, Bhara Kuhu, Islamabad.

Telephone: 9257701 Cell: 0315 5014982 http://www.technologytimes.pk/mag/2011/march11/issue01/coping_with_energy_crisis.php